生态旅游地发展的模型研究

这篇文章运用生态-经济的理论,利用系统动力学的方法,将生态旅游的一些零散论述加以系统化,并通过建立生态旅游的结构模型,探讨生态旅游发展中生态、社会和经济系统之间的结构和行为关系.生态旅游发展的模型涉及了物质资源、文化资源、基础设施、工作市场、游客和财务促销等6个部分,模型的模拟功能有助于理解旅游发展的复杂结构.模型得到验证后,可以成为评价旅游发展政策的工具.     

电子商务退货物流动态行为分析

采用系统动力学的方法构建了一个基于电子商务平台的退货模型,分析了退货政策与电子商务企业的各个运营指标之间的定量关系,并运用Vensim PLE软件进行仿真实验。研究结果表明:1退货政策宽松度越高,退货率和销售率都会相对上升,这与现实相符;2当网络零售商采取有时间限制的退货策略时,如果其退货比例和业内基本一致,其可以通过提供较宽松的退货政策来提高销售量。     

医疗服务费对公立医院公益性影响的系统动力学分析

医疗服务费是医务人员技术劳动价值的体现,调整医疗服务费是当前医疗改革的焦点。本文应用系统动力学方法通过分析医疗服务费调整通过提升医师技术价值从而对医务人员诊疗行为和患者就医行为以及医药企业营销行为的影响,构建医疗服务费对医改影响的因果关系图,分析了医疗服务费调整的关键作用,即促使医方合理用药,提高诊疗质量;促使患者就诊分流,满意度提高;促使医药企业以药品质量赢得市场。最后本文根据研究结论提出相关建议:坚定医疗服务费改革的信心,并及时采取保障措施,一是医院管理制度上保障医务人员价值实现,二是加强基层医疗资源配置吸纳患者的分流。     

Interest Rates and Credit Risk

This paper explores the effects of shifts in interest rates on corporate leverage and default in the context of a dynamic model in which the link between leverage and default risk comes from the lower incentives of overindebted entrepreneurs to guarantee firm survival. The need to finance new investment pushes firms' leverage ratio above some state‐contingent target toward which firms gradually adjust through earnings retention. The response to interest rate rises and cuts is both asymmetric and heterogeneously distributed across firms. Our results help rationalize some of the evidence regarding the risk‐taking channel of monetary policy.     

Reconceptualizing competitive dynamics: A multidimensional framework

Competitive dynamics research, despite progress, lacks a conceptual framework that can extend the field's reach to address today's environment. Increasing stakeholder power and globalization are but two of the organizational and economic forces compelling a broader conceptualization of competition. Our framework expands competitive dynamics along five dimensions—aims of competition, mode of competing, roster of actors, action toolkit, and time horizon of interaction—that prove useful for contrasting the rivalrous and competitive‐cooperative modes and a new approach we call relational competition. We draw conjectures about the moderators, such as industry and culture, that determine the appropriateness of these forms of interaction, and conclude by relating our method to three discrete perspectives: the configurational, transaction cost, and stakeholder views. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

新区域主义理论脉络及研究动态述评

随着"新区域主义"的发展,区域经济一体化理论的研究试图超越基于比较优势、资源重新配置和效率的传统分析框架,探讨生产要素的配置效率以外的因素,如贸易与生产率的关系、动态比较优势和贸易需求增加带来的效率增加等。对传统一体化理论研究框架和"新区域主义"的理论和实证研究进行了梳理,特别是从贸易生产率关系、不完全竞争、投资效应、利益集团与政治经济学理论的发展趋势方面进行了综述。     

Income inequality and economic growth

Despite the extensive existing literature on income inequality and economic growth, there remains considerable disagreement on the effect of inequality on economic growth. Existing literatures find either a positive or a negative relationship. In this paper, we attempt to theoretically examine that relationship with a stochastic optimal growth model. We make the disagreement clear within a single model. We conclude (i) that both are possible – that is, higher inequality can retard growth in the early stage of economic development, and can encourage growth in a near steady state, (ii) that income redistribution by high income tax does not always reduce income inequality. Income inequality can be reduced by higher income tax in a near steady state, but it cannot be reduced in the early stage of economic development, and (iii) that two government polices – rapid economic growth and low income inequality – can be achieved by low income tax in the early stage of economic development, but both cannot be achieved simultaneously in a near steady state.     

基于系统动力学的长春市CZ公司服装物流仿真研究

通过分析长春市CZ服装公司的实际物流过程,利用系统动力学理论与方法对物流过程进行系统边界界定和因果关系分析,选取CZ公司面向某个专卖店的实际数据建立起系统动力学流程图及方程体系,并对其进行动态模拟,所得方案可为其物流运作效率和稳定性的提高提供参考和借鉴。     

Downward wage rigidity and business cycle asymmetries

The growth rates of wages, unemployment and output of a number of OECD countries have a strongly skewed distribution. In this paper we analyze to what extent downward wage rigidities can explain these empirical business cycle asymmetries. To this aim, we introduce asymmetric wage adjustment costs in a New-Keynesian DSGE model with search and matching frictions in the labor market. Increasing wages is less costly than cutting them. It follows that wages increase relatively fast and thus limit vacancy posting and employment creation, but they decline more slowly, leading to a strong reduction in vacancies and employment. The presence of downward wage rigidities strongly improves the fit of the model to the observed skewness of labor market variables and the relative length of expansions and contractions in the output and the employment cycles. The asymmetry also explains the differing transmission of positive and negative monetary policy shocks from wages to inflation.     

Technological change and industry structure: A case study of the petroleum industry

This paper is a case study of the impact of an exogenous improvement of a process technology on the structure of the petroleum industry. The paper examines the role of three-dimensional seismology in bringing about the 1990s oil industry consolidation. This proposition is examined in the context of evolutionary economics and in a non-cooperative game theory, concluding with a reference to Steindl's theory of industry dynamics. The significance of this contribution lies chiefly in highlighting the fact that exogenous technological change can, under appropriate conditions, play a significant role in industry dynamics. This reference to the exogenous change in technology is a departure from the traditional consideration of endogenity of industry structure in relation to technological development and, therefore, a novelty. Secondly, the documentation of 3D seismology as a significant process technology of the petroleum industry is significant.